How Merkel's migration gamble transformed Germany's Africa policy →

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While stemming the flow of Africans fleeing to Europe has always been an aspect of Germany’s approach to the continent, the 2015 influx elevated it to an almost singular goal. Aid and development assistance are now increasingly linked to efforts to reduce migration. And Germany has demonstrated a willingness to strike or be party to arrangements with countries on the continent that have abysmal human rights records but can be helpful in curtailing new arrivals.

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The ICC is flawed. Is it still Africa's best hope for justice? →

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More than 11 years after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for Dominic Ongwen’s arrest, and nearly two years after he was captured and transferred to The Hague, his prosecution finally began in December.

Ongwen’s will not be the only trial unfolding over the coming months. The years since the unsealing of the warrant against him have been rocky for the ICC, which has been accused of reinforcing global power dynamics and targeting geopolitically weak states, particularly in Africa. These were among the reasons three African countries—Burundi, South Africa and Gambia—cited in late 2016 when they announced they would begin the process of withdrawing from the statute that created the court. More are threatening to follow.

During this particularly fraught moment in the ICC’s history, Ongwen’s trial promises to keep many of these issues at the fore. And it could be used either to reinforce the court’s necessity or further undermine its legitimacy, especially on the African continent. Read more.

Does any party in South Sudan have the will to prevent genocide? →

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The third anniversary last week of the start of South Sudan's ongoing civil war served only to reinforce how intractable that conflict has become. A peace deal is in tatters, along with the country's economy. With the return of the dry season, the combatants appear to be preparing for another round of fighting. And the United Nations is now warning of possible genocide. Read more.

Kenya's troop withdrawal could seal the fate of South Sudan's peace process →

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In a sharp rebuke to the United Nations, Kenya has started the process of pulling its troops from the U.N. peacekeeping mission in South Sudan. To make matters worse, Kenya is simultaneously disengaging from peace efforts in South Sudan, where a 15-month-old agreement to bring together warring parties was already on the verge of collapse. The moves by Kenya, which has been a key regional force in pushing for South Sudanese stability, could cement its failure. Read more.

Global health funding faces a shortfall of billions to fight diseases →

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The international public health community that has watched itsfinancing dwindle, even as scientific advances make it increasingly possible to actually end some of the world’s worst diseases. That includes HIV, officially the deadliest epidemic in history. The decline in global health funding threatens not just to stymie scientific advances against diseases like HIV, but to actually reverse gains made in the past decade. Read more.

Protests and clashes likely just the start of political unrest in Kenya →

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Kenya’s national elections are more than a year away, but political tensions are already rising. Starting in late April, the main political opposition group began organizing a near-weekly protest against the commission charged with organizing the vote. It has accused the commission’s members of being in the pocket of President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is set to stand for a second term. The recent demonstrations have consistently been met with widespread police brutality; at least three protesters were killed during the latest incident late last month.

Following those deaths, Kenyatta’s government and the opposition have started negotiations, and future demonstrations have been temporarily suspended. Even if they reach a compromise on this issue, though, there is every reason to suspect it is only the first in what promises to be a year of political clashes. Whether those battles tip over into further physical violence is up to the country’s leaders. Read more.

Kenya tries to stifle any criticism of its fight against al-Shabab →

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With a devastating attack last month on an army base in southwestern Somalia housing Kenyan soldiers, the militant group al-Shabab once again signaled its strength, despite the years-long regional effort to wipe it out. Dozens of Kenyan soldiers were slaughtered in the assault, which raised questions about Nairobi’s role in the ongoing campaign against the Islamic extremists. But Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta insists his government is committed to vanquishing al-Shabab—even as it does everything it can to silence any domestic debate over Kenya’s continued involvement in that effort. Read more.

Uganda's election worries Museveni camp more than it will admit →

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Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is treating his country’s election later this month as a coronation, not a contest, happy to cultivate the impression that the five-year extension to his already 30-year rule is all but a done deal. But the arrest this past weekend of a prominent general turned regime critic is the latest sign that Museveni’s camp is more worried about the vote—and its aftermath—than they are letting on. Read more.

South Sudan unexpectedly drives Uganda and Sudan's détente →

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When Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni took a surprise mid-September trip to Khartoum to meet his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir, it solidified the unexpected rapprochement in what had been one of Africa’s thorniest relationships. Two of the continent’s longest-serving leaders, Museveni and Bashir have spent much of the past two decades sniping at one another publicly as each secretly worked to destabilize the other’s government. Read more.

Can South Sudan's leaders get peace right the second time? →

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When South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, inked a new agreement in late August to end his country’s 20-month conflict, he seemed to be following a pattern the two warring sides had set in reaching or recommitting to an earlier deal to cease hostilities: Temporarily stave off international and regional pressure by signing, then allow it to collapse under the weight of continued fighting. True to form, clashes have continued into September, with each side accusing the other of attacks. Read more.

Uganda's Museveni succeeds where others fail in eluding term limits →

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Burundi’s Pierre Nkurunziza and other presidents trying to subvert term limits could all take a lesson from their neighbor, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. Having disposed of term limits a decade ago, Museveni is set to run for his fifth term next year, in a campaign that seems as much a coronation as a contest. Read more.